The Fed's target rate is 3.75%–4.0%; at the next meeting on 2026-10-28 markets price 85% hold, 1% cut, 14% hike. Markets move these odds after every inflation report, and energy-driven inflation makes cuts less likely.
2-year Treasury yield (last 12 months), 2025-10-17 to 2026-10-15
Upcoming Fed meetings and market odds
Meeting
In
Market odds
2026-10-28
11 days
85% hold, 1% cut, 14% hike
2026-12-09
53 days
21% hold, 2% cut, 77% hike
2027-01-27
102 days
63% hold, 3% cut, 34% hike
2027-03-17
151 days
28% hold, 9% cut, 63% hike
2027-04-28
193 days
61% hold, 5% cut, 33% hike
2027-06-09
235 days
59% hold, 10% cut, 32% hike
Bank stocks
Over the past month JPM led this group at -2.7%, while SCHW lagged at -12.1%.
No insider at these companies bought shares on the open market in the last 90 days.
Stock
Close
5 days
1 month
Insider buys 90d
Insider sells 90d
JPM
$339.72
+2.0%
-2.7%
—
$1.8M
BAC
$51.23
-5.7%
-11.9%
—
—
SCHW
$91.96
-4.9%
-12.1%
—
$141.5M
Data: official daily and weekly series for prices, yields and rates, refreshed every day; stock moves from daily closes; insider trades from SEC Form 4. Live pages: JPM, BAC, SCHW.
What would change the picture
The Fed's target rate (upper bound) moving above its 52-week high of 4.25% or back toward the low of 3.75%; it is 4.0% now.
The next Fed decision on 2026-10-28. Market odds: 85% hold, 1% cut, 14% hike.
A Fed cut lowers short-term Treasury and savings rates within days; long-term rates may not follow.
These are the numbers and events to watch, not a forecast.
The Fed's target rate (upper bound) today vs past years
When
Level then
Change to today
1 year ago (2025-10)
4.25%
-0.25 pts
3 years ago (2023-10)
5.5%
-1.5 pts
5 years ago (2021-10)
0.25%
+3.75 pts
Today's 4.0% is higher than 61% of all readings since 2018.
The Fed's target rate (upper bound): the last 10 years
Year
Average
High
Low
2026
3.78%
4.0%
3.75%
2025
4.37%
4.5%
3.75%
2024
5.31%
5.5%
4.5%
2023
5.2%
5.5%
4.5%
2022
1.86%
4.5%
0.25%
2021
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
2020
0.54%
1.75%
0.25%
2019
2.28%
2.5%
1.75%
2018
2.18%
2.5%
2.0%
The highest reading since 2018 was 5.5% on 2023-07-27. The current year is partial.
Questions people also ask
What was the highest the Fed's target rate (upper bound) in the past year?
The Fed's target rate (upper bound) ranged from 3.75% to 4.25% over the past 12 months. The latest reading is 4.0% (2026-10-17).
How much has the Fed's target rate (upper bound) changed in a year?
The Fed's target rate (upper bound) is -0.25 pts from a year ago, +0.25 pts over three months and 0.0 pts over the past month.
What is the federal funds rate right now?
The target range is 3.75%–4.0% (as of 2026-10-17). It has moved -0.25 pts over a year.
Which related stocks did best this month?
Of the 3 companies tracked on this page, JPM did best over a month (-2.7%) and SCHW worst (-12.1%). No insider at these companies bought shares on the open market in the last 90 days.
Dates to watch
Date
Event
Why it matters
Thu Oct 22, 2026
Weekly 30-year mortgage rate survey
The national average rate used on this page.
Wed Oct 28, 2026
Federal Reserve rate decision
Market odds: 85% hold, 1% cut, 14% hike.
Wed Dec 9, 2026
Federal Reserve rate decision
Market odds: 21% hold, 2% cut, 77% hike.
Key terms on this page
Open-market trade
A purchase or sale on the exchange at the market price, paid with the insider's own money (code P or S on Form 4), as opposed to option exercises, grants or gifts.
52-week high / low
The highest and lowest daily closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days).
Treasury yield
The annual return on U.S. government debt at the current price. Yields rise when prices fall; long-term yields set the tone for mortgages and corporate loans.
Spread (points)
The difference between two rates in percentage points: 7.4% minus 4.3% is a 3.1-point spread. 0.01 points is one basis point.
Federal funds rate
The overnight rate banks charge each other, which the Fed sets as a target range at its eight yearly meetings.
Where these numbers come from
Federal funds target rate, upper bound (%): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-17.
2-year Treasury yield (%): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-15.
Changes compare the latest reading with the closest reading 7, 30, 91 and 365 days earlier; the 52-week range uses every reading in the past year.
Related stocks: daily closing prices and open-market insider trades from SEC Form 4 (last 90 days).
Every number on this page is computed from the data when the page is refreshed (usually daily); nothing is typed in by hand. This is information, not investment advice.
In the news
2026-10-17 · Another interest rate hike may be ahead as Fed battles inflation.
2026-10-16 · Nasdaq futures edge lower as AI spending, Fed rate concerns weigh.
2026-10-15 · 10-15-2026: Hot CPI and PPI, Yield Reversal, AI Angst + Staples Climb.
2026-10-15 · Treasury Yields Falls as AI Concerns Offset Faster Inflation Data.
2026-10-14 · Nasdaq closes 1.8% lower as as hotter CPI fuels Fed rate hike fears.
Short summaries of recent market headlines about these companies, their leaders and partners; not verified by CapitalSnitch.
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How this article was made: it was generated from SEC filings and market data with automated tools and is published under Spencer Vaughn's editorial responsibility. Spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (Form 4, 8-K/6-K, prospectuses, XBRL share counts) and daily closing prices. Insider sales are often routine (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans). Not investment advice.
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