The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread is 0.35 points (2026-10-16), so the curve is not inverted: long rates are above short rates; the 10-year minus 3-month spread is 0.83 points.
10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (last 12 months), 2025-10-17 to 2026-10-16
Yield curve now
Measure
Latest
1 week
1 month
1 year
52-week range
10y – 2y (pts)
0.35
-0.09 pts
+0.08 pts
-0.23 pts
0.2 – 0.74
10y – 3m (pts)
0.83
-0.16 pts
-0.04 pts
+0.86 pts
-0.03 – 1.09
Banks (they earn the gap between short and long rates)
Among the related stocks, JPM did best over a month (-2.7%) and SCHW worst (-12.1%).
No insider at these companies bought shares on the open market in the last 90 days.
Stock
Close
5 days
1 month
Insider buys 90d
Insider sells 90d
JPM
$339.72
+2.0%
-2.7%
—
$1.8M
BAC
$51.23
-5.7%
-11.9%
—
—
SCHW
$91.96
-4.9%
-12.1%
—
$141.5M
Data: official daily and weekly series for prices, yields and rates, refreshed every day; stock moves from daily closes; insider trades from SEC Form 4. Live pages: JPM, BAC, SCHW.
What would change the picture
The 10-year minus 2-year spread moving above its 52-week high of 0.74 pts or back toward the low of 0.2 pts; it is 0.35 pts now.
The 10-year Treasury yield (5.1%, +0.1 pts in a month): mortgage rates follow it. Each 0.25-point move changes the payment on a $400,000 loan by about $69 a month.
Oil (WTI $101.91, +26.2% in three months): lower oil eases inflation worries, which usually pulls long yields down.
The next Fed decision on 2026-10-28. Market odds: 85% hold, 1% cut, 14% hike.
These are the numbers and events to watch, not a forecast.
The 10-year minus 2-year spread today vs past years
When
Level then
Change to today
1 year ago (2025-10)
0.58 pts
-0.23 pts
3 years ago (2023-10)
-0.36 pts
+0.71 pts
5 years ago (2021-10)
1.18 pts
-0.83 pts
10 years ago (2016-10)
0.96 pts
-0.61 pts
20 years ago (2006-10)
-0.06 pts
+0.41 pts
Today's 0.35 pts is higher than 28% of all readings since 2001.
The 10-year minus 2-year spread: the last 10 years
Year
Average
High
Low
2026
0.48 pts
0.74 pts
0.2 pts
2025
0.48 pts
0.73 pts
0.2 pts
2024
-0.16 pts
0.33 pts
-0.47 pts
2023
-0.62 pts
-0.13 pts
-1.08 pts
2022
-0.04 pts
0.89 pts
-0.84 pts
2021
1.18 pts
1.59 pts
0.72 pts
2020
0.5 pts
0.83 pts
0.12 pts
2019
0.17 pts
0.34 pts
-0.04 pts
2018
0.38 pts
0.78 pts
0.11 pts
2017
0.93 pts
1.3 pts
0.51 pts
The highest reading since 2001 was 2.91 pts on 2011-02-04. The current year is partial.
Questions people also ask
What was the highest the 10-year minus 2-year spread in the past year?
The 10-year minus 2-year spread ranged from 0.2 pts to 0.74 pts over the past 12 months. The latest reading is 0.35 pts (2026-10-16).
How much has the 10-year minus 2-year spread changed in a year?
The 10-year minus 2-year spread is -0.23 pts from a year ago, -0.02 pts over three months and +0.08 pts over the past month.
Does an inverted yield curve mean a recession is coming?
Not with certainty. An inverted 10-year minus 2-year curve has come before most U.S. recessions since the 1970s, but the lead time ranged from months to about two years, and some signals were false. Today the spread is 0.35 points.
Which related stocks did best this month?
Of the 3 companies tracked on this page, JPM did best over a month (-2.7%) and SCHW worst (-12.1%). No insider at these companies bought shares on the open market in the last 90 days.
Dates to watch
Date
Event
Why it matters
Thu Oct 22, 2026
Weekly 30-year mortgage rate survey
The national average rate used on this page.
Wed Oct 28, 2026
Federal Reserve rate decision
Market odds: 85% hold, 1% cut, 14% hike.
Wed Dec 9, 2026
Federal Reserve rate decision
Market odds: 21% hold, 2% cut, 77% hike.
Key terms on this page
Open-market trade
A purchase or sale on the exchange at the market price, paid with the insider's own money (code P or S on Form 4), as opposed to option exercises, grants or gifts.
52-week high / low
The highest and lowest daily closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days).
WTI
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude oil, priced at Cushing, Oklahoma.
Treasury yield
The annual return on U.S. government debt at the current price. Yields rise when prices fall; long-term yields set the tone for mortgages and corporate loans.
Spread (points)
The difference between two rates in percentage points: 7.4% minus 4.3% is a 3.1-point spread. 0.01 points is one basis point.
Yield curve
Treasury yields plotted from short to long maturities. It is inverted when short rates are above long rates, which has preceded most U.S. recessions since the 1970s, with uneven lead times.
Federal funds rate
The overnight rate banks charge each other, which the Fed sets as a target range at its eight yearly meetings.
Where these numbers come from
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield (percentage points): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-16.
10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield (percentage points): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-16.
10-year Treasury yield (%): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-15.
2-year Treasury yield (%): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-15.
Changes compare the latest reading with the closest reading 7, 30, 91 and 365 days earlier; the 52-week range uses every reading in the past year.
Related stocks: daily closing prices and open-market insider trades from SEC Form 4 (last 90 days).
Every number on this page is computed from the data when the page is refreshed (usually daily); nothing is typed in by hand. This is information, not investment advice.
In the news
2026-10-17 · Another interest rate hike may be ahead as Fed battles inflation.
2026-10-16 · Nasdaq futures edge lower as AI spending, Fed rate concerns weigh.
2026-10-15 · Treasury Yields Falls as AI Concerns Offset Faster Inflation Data.
2026-10-14 · Nasdaq closes 1.8% lower as as hotter CPI fuels Fed rate hike fears.
2026-10-14 · Fed's Barkin: Not seeing AI job losses happening at scale.
Short summaries of recent market headlines about these companies, their leaders and partners; not verified by CapitalSnitch.
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How this article was made: it was generated from SEC filings and market data with automated tools and is published under Camille Foster's editorial responsibility. Spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it.
Sources: SEC EDGAR (Form 4, 8-K/6-K, prospectuses, XBRL share counts) and daily closing prices. Insider sales are often routine (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans). Not investment advice.
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