Why do mortgage rates go up when oil prices rise?

Oil, yields and mortgage rates side by side

The chain, step by step

1. Higher oil raises fuel, shipping and goods prices, so inflation expectations rise.

2. Bond investors demand higher yields to keep up with inflation, and the Fed is less likely to cut.

3. Lenders price 30-year mortgages off the 10-year Treasury yield plus a margin, so mortgage rates rise with it.

Homebuilders and mortgage lenders

Over the past month TOL led this group at -0.5%, while UWMC lagged at -16.7%.

Insiders bought shares on the open market in the last 90 days at LEN.

Data: official daily and weekly series for prices, yields and rates, refreshed every day; stock moves from daily closes; insider trades from SEC Form 4. Live pages: DHI, LEN, PHM, TOL, RKT, UWMC.

What would change the picture

• The 30-year mortgage rate moving above its 52-week high of 7.4% or back toward the low of 5.98%; it is 7.4% now.
• The 10-year Treasury yield (5.1%, +0.1 pts in a month): mortgage rates follow it. Each 0.25-point move changes the payment on a $400,000 loan by about $69 a month.
• Oil (WTI $101.91, +26.2% in three months): lower oil eases inflation worries, which usually pulls long yields down.
• The next Fed decision on 2026-10-28. Market odds: 85% hold, 1% cut, 14% hike.

These are the numbers and events to watch, not a forecast.

The 30-year mortgage rate today vs past years

Today's 7.4% is higher than 99% of all readings since 2001.

The 30-year mortgage rate: the last 10 years

The highest reading since 2001 was 7.79% on 2023-10-26. The current year is partial.

Questions people also ask

What was the highest the 30-year mortgage rate in the past year?

The 30-year mortgage rate ranged from 5.98% to 7.4% over the past 12 months. The latest reading is 7.4% (2026-10-15), at or near the top of that range.

How much has the 30-year mortgage rate changed in a year?

The 30-year mortgage rate is +1.1 pts from a year ago, +0.85 pts over three months and +0.64 pts over the past month.

When was the 30-year mortgage rate last this high?

Not since 2023, going by the daily and weekly history back to 2001.

How much does a 1-point rate change cost per month?

On a $400,000 30-year loan, 7.4% costs $2,770 a month and 6.4% costs $2,502: about $267 a month, or $96,298 over 30 years.

Why are mortgage rates higher than Treasury yields?

Lenders add a margin for credit risk, servicing costs and the chance you refinance early. Today the gap is 2.3 points (7.4% vs a 5.1% 10-year Treasury); it has averaged about 1.7 points over long periods.

Which related stocks did best this month?

Of the 6 companies tracked on this page, TOL did best over a month (-0.5%) and UWMC worst (-16.7%). Insiders bought shares on the open market at LEN in the last 90 days.

Dates to watch

Key terms on this page

Open-market trade

A purchase or sale on the exchange at the market price, paid with the insider's own money (code P or S on Form 4), as opposed to option exercises, grants or gifts.

52-week high / low

The highest and lowest daily closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days).

WTI

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude oil, priced at Cushing, Oklahoma.

Treasury yield

The annual return on U.S. government debt at the current price. Yields rise when prices fall; long-term yields set the tone for mortgages and corporate loans.

Spread (points)

The difference between two rates in percentage points: 7.4% minus 4.3% is a 3.1-point spread. 0.01 points is one basis point.

Federal funds rate

The overnight rate banks charge each other, which the Fed sets as a target range at its eight yearly meetings.

30-year fixed mortgage rate

The weekly national average rate on a 30-year fixed home loan for well-qualified borrowers. Your own rate depends on credit, down payment and points.

Where these numbers come from

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate (weekly national average, %): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-15.
• 10-year Treasury yield (%): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-15.
• WTI crude (daily spot, $/barrel): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-14.
• Changes compare the latest reading with the closest reading 7, 30, 91 and 365 days earlier; the 52-week range uses every reading in the past year.
• Mortgage payments use the standard fixed-rate formula (principal and interest only).
• Related stocks: daily closing prices and open-market insider trades from SEC Form 4 (last 90 days).

Every number on this page is computed from the data when the page is refreshed (usually daily); nothing is typed in by hand. This is information, not investment advice.