Is it better to buy a house now or wait for rates to drop?

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Short answer

It depends on prices and your situation, and CapitalSnitch doesn't give personal advice. The trade-off in numbers: on a $400,000 loan, today's 7.4% means about $2,770 a month; one point lower (6.4%) would be $2,502, about $267 less. Waiting only pays if rates fall and home prices don't rise more.

30-year fixed mortgage rate (last 12 months), 2025-10-23 to 2026-10-15
5.98%6.69%7.40%10-2304-2310-15

Rates now vs the past year

MeasureLatest1 week1 month1 year52-week range
30-year mortgage (%)7.40.0 pts+0.64 pts+1.1 pts5.98 – 7.4
10-year Treasury (%)5.1-0.12 pts+0.1 pts+1.05 pts3.97 – 5.31

Monthly payment by rate ($400,000, 30-year fixed)

RateMonthly paymentTotal interest
6.4%$2,502$500,729
6.9%$2,634$548,384
7.4%$2,770$597,027
7.9%$2,907$646,600

Homebuilder stocks

Among the related stocks, TOL did best over a month (-0.5%) and PHM worst (-4.5%).

Insiders bought shares on the open market in the last 90 days at LEN.

StockClose5 days1 monthInsider buys 90dInsider sells 90d
DHI$139.39+3.3%-0.7%——
LEN$77.08+0.5%-3.3%$595.3M—
PHM$113.55+1.3%-4.5%——
TOL$133.7+0.4%-0.5%—$109K

Data: official daily and weekly series for prices, yields and rates, refreshed every day; stock moves from daily closes; insider trades from SEC Form 4. Live pages: DHI, LEN, PHM, TOL.

What would change the picture

  • The 30-year mortgage rate moving above its 52-week high of 7.4% or back toward the low of 5.98%; it is 7.4% now.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield (5.1%, +0.1 pts in a month): mortgage rates follow it. Each 0.25-point move changes the payment on a $400,000 loan by about $69 a month.
  • Oil (WTI $101.91, +26.2% in three months): lower oil eases inflation worries, which usually pulls long yields down.
  • The next Fed decision on 2026-10-28. Market odds: 85% hold, 1% cut, 14% hike.

These are the numbers and events to watch, not a forecast.

The 30-year mortgage rate today vs past years

WhenLevel thenChange to today
1 year ago (2025-10)6.3%+1.1 pts
3 years ago (2023-10)7.57%-0.17 pts
5 years ago (2021-10)3.05%+4.35 pts
10 years ago (2016-10)3.47%+3.93 pts
20 years ago (2006-10)6.37%+1.03 pts

Today's 7.4% is higher than 99% of all readings since 2001.

The 30-year mortgage rate: the last 10 years

YearAverageHighLow
20266.48%7.4%5.98%
20256.6%7.04%6.15%
20246.72%7.22%6.08%
20236.81%7.79%6.09%
20225.34%7.08%3.22%
20212.96%3.18%2.65%
20203.11%3.72%2.66%
20193.94%4.51%3.49%
20184.54%4.94%3.95%
20173.99%4.3%3.78%

The highest reading since 2001 was 7.79% on 2023-10-26. The current year is partial.

Questions people also ask

What was the highest the 30-year mortgage rate in the past year?

The 30-year mortgage rate ranged from 5.98% to 7.4% over the past 12 months. The latest reading is 7.4% (2026-10-15), at or near the top of that range.

How much has the 30-year mortgage rate changed in a year?

The 30-year mortgage rate is +1.1 pts from a year ago, +0.85 pts over three months and +0.64 pts over the past month.

When was the 30-year mortgage rate last this high?

Not since 2023, going by the daily and weekly history back to 2001.

How much does a 1-point rate change cost per month?

On a $400,000 30-year loan, 7.4% costs $2,770 a month and 6.4% costs $2,502: about $267 a month, or $96,298 over 30 years.

Why are mortgage rates higher than Treasury yields?

Lenders add a margin for credit risk, servicing costs and the chance you refinance early. Today the gap is 2.3 points (7.4% vs a 5.1% 10-year Treasury); it has averaged about 1.7 points over long periods.

Which related stocks did best this month?

Of the 4 companies tracked on this page, TOL did best over a month (-0.5%) and PHM worst (-4.5%). Insiders bought shares on the open market at LEN in the last 90 days.

Dates to watch

DateEventWhy it matters
Thu Oct 22, 2026Weekly 30-year mortgage rate surveyThe national average rate used on this page.
Thu Oct 22, 2026PHM earningsCompanies on this page report results.
Wed Oct 28, 2026Federal Reserve rate decisionMarket odds: 85% hold, 1% cut, 14% hike.
Thu Oct 29, 2026DHI earningsCompanies on this page report results.
Wed Dec 9, 2026Federal Reserve rate decisionMarket odds: 21% hold, 2% cut, 77% hike.

Key terms on this page

Open-market trade
A purchase or sale on the exchange at the market price, paid with the insider's own money (code P or S on Form 4), as opposed to option exercises, grants or gifts.
52-week high / low
The highest and lowest daily closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days).
WTI
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude oil, priced at Cushing, Oklahoma.
Treasury yield
The annual return on U.S. government debt at the current price. Yields rise when prices fall; long-term yields set the tone for mortgages and corporate loans.
Spread (points)
The difference between two rates in percentage points: 7.4% minus 4.3% is a 3.1-point spread. 0.01 points is one basis point.
Federal funds rate
The overnight rate banks charge each other, which the Fed sets as a target range at its eight yearly meetings.
30-year fixed mortgage rate
The weekly national average rate on a 30-year fixed home loan for well-qualified borrowers. Your own rate depends on credit, down payment and points.

Where these numbers come from

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rate (weekly national average, %): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-15.
  • 10-year Treasury yield (%): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-15.
  • WTI crude (daily spot, $/barrel): official public data series, latest reading 2026-10-14.
  • Changes compare the latest reading with the closest reading 7, 30, 91 and 365 days earlier; the 52-week range uses every reading in the past year.
  • Mortgage payments use the standard fixed-rate formula (principal and interest only).
  • Related stocks: daily closing prices and open-market insider trades from SEC Form 4 (last 90 days).

Every number on this page is computed from the data when the page is refreshed (usually daily); nothing is typed in by hand. This is information, not investment advice.

In the news

Short summaries of recent market headlines about these companies, their leaders and partners; not verified by CapitalSnitch.

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More on oil, rates and housing

How this article was made: it was generated from SEC filings and market data with automated tools and is published under Camille Foster's editorial responsibility. Spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it.

Sources: SEC EDGAR (Form 4, 8-K/6-K, prospectuses, XBRL share counts) and daily closing prices. Insider sales are often routine (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans). Not investment advice.

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