Will BBAI stock recover?

BBAI is down 35.9% from its 3-month high and 70.2% from its 52-week high. Nobody knows if it will climb back, but the stock's own history offers useful context.

Below are BBAI's past drops of 20% or more, how deep each one went and how long the comeback took.

The chart below tracks BBAI's daily closing price from April 29, 2026 to Oct. 23, 2026. Over that stretch it is down 44.0%, from $3.82 to $2.14, with a high of $5.34 on June 1, 2026 and a low of $2.12 on Oct. 19, 2026. Each red circle marks a week in which company insiders sold shares on the open market (2 weeks in this period; bigger circles mean more money). There are no green diamonds: no insider bought on the open market in this window.

BBAI's past 20%+ drops and recoveries

The table below shows BBAI's past 20%+ drops and recoveries. Sept. 11, 2023 has the highest drop at -31.2%. Feb. 13, 2025 has the lowest at -78.3%.

Also worth knowing about BBAI

Live BBAI data, updated every 30 minutes: BBAI insider trades, ownership and filings →

In BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s own words

“It has been another strong quarter. Double-digit growth, significant margin expansion and more than 20 new contracts show that the BigBear.ai leadership team is following through on our commitments. We are in a strong financial position with $410 million of cash and investments, we’re on track for our target of 17% revenue growth, and we intend to accelerate.”

— Kevin McAleenan, CEO of BigBear · SEC filing

From the company's earnings release filed with the SEC on 2026-07-30 (Form 8-K).

What would change the picture for BBAI

These are the specific events and levels to watch. None of them is a prediction.

• The Oct. 27, 2026 earnings report is 2 days away. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +35.3%. A miss would break that pattern.
• Insider buying: none on the open market in 90 days. A purchase by an executive or director would be the first in at least three months. It would show up on SEC Form 4 within two business days.
• Price levels: a close above $7.17 would be a new 52-week high, 235.0% above the latest close of $2.14. A close below $2.12 would be a new 52-week low, 0.9% below it.
• Growth: revenue fell 13.7% year over year in the quarter ending Jun 2026. The trend is accelerating.
• New shares: dilution risk is high now. A new shelf registration (S-3) or a prospectus supplement (424B) for an offering would raise it.

How BBAI compares with its peers

Over the past month BBAI ranks 3 of 4 in this group at -23.6%. The best was AI at +15.8%, and the weakest was SOUN at -27.4%.

A dash in the P/E column means the company lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E.

BBAI history: what happened after similar moves

Since 2023, BBAI fell 23.6% or more in a month 12 times (separate episodes, not counting the current one). Three months later it was higher in 7 of 11 cases; the median change was +3.3%.

Past moves don't predict the next one; they show how volatile the stock has been.

Questions people also ask

When does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?

The next report is expected on Oct. 27, 2026, 2 days from now. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. beat the average estimate in 2 of its last 4 reports.

Are BBAI insiders buying or selling?

No BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. insider bought or sold BBAI on the open market in the last 90 days, according to SEC Form 4 filings.

Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. issuing new shares?

Dilution risk reads high (75/100). That is based on 3 offering-related filing(s) in 12 months.

Does BBAI pay a dividend?

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. reported no dividend payments over the last 12 months in its SEC filings.

Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. profitable?

Not over the last 12 months: BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. had $131.6 million of revenue but a net loss. The net margin was -65.2%.

Who is the largest shareholder of BBAI?

Among investment managers that file Form 13F, BlackRock Inc. reported the largest BBAI position at $148.9 million. 327 institutions reported holding BBAI for Q2 2026.

Dates to watch for BBAI

Insider trades can come any day: they must be filed on Form 4 within two business days.

Key terms on this page

P/E ratio

Price divided by the last 12 months of earnings per share. A P/E of 20 means investors pay $20 for each $1 of yearly profit. It is only defined when the company is profitable.

Form 4

The SEC form a company's officers, directors and 10% owners must file within two business days of buying or selling its stock.

Open-market trade

A purchase or sale on the exchange at the market price, paid with the insider's own money (code P or S on Form 4), as opposed to option exercises, grants or gifts.

Form 13F

A quarterly SEC report listing the U.S. stock holdings of every investment manager with more than $100 million. It is due 45 days after each quarter ends, so it shows positions with a delay.

Dilution

When a company issues new shares, each existing share owns a smaller piece of the company. Common sources: stock offerings, convertible debt and large stock-based pay.

Form 8-K

The SEC form for material events between quarterly reports: earnings releases, deals, executive changes, stock offerings and similar news.

52-week high / low

The highest and lowest daily closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days).

Where these numbers come from

Every number on this page is computed from the data when the page is refreshed (usually daily); nothing is typed in by hand. This is information, not investment advice.

• Price: daily closing prices through Oct. 23, 2026. Changes use 5, 21 and 63 trading days. The 52-week range uses the last 252 closes.
• Insider trades: SEC Form 4 filings for the last 90 days. Only open-market purchases (code P) and sales (code S) count. Option exercises, grants, gifts and filings with data errors are left out.
• Earnings dates and estimates: a market-data calendar. It shows reported vs expected EPS for the last 4 quarters.
• Valuation and growth: revenue, earnings, margins and share counts from the company's SEC filings. The data is XBRL for the latest quarter, Jun 2026. P/E and price/sales use the latest close.
• Fund ownership: SEC Form 13F filings for Q2 2026.
• Dilution: share-count changes and offering-related SEC filings (shelf registrations, prospectus supplements, convertible notes) over two years, scored 0-100.
• History: 21-trading-day moves over about three years of daily closes, counted once per episode.