TSLA stock forecast and price prediction: what the data shows

Price targets are educated guesses, but the inputs behind them are public. CapitalSnitch doesn't publish price targets or predictions.

Below are the four that matter most for TSLA: what analysts think, the next earnings report, how Tesla, Inc. has done against estimates and how much the stock has swung in the past.

The chart below tracks TSLA's daily closing price from April 22, 2026 to Oct. 16, 2026. Over that stretch it is down 8.5%, from $387.51 to $354.72, with a high of $445.27 on May 13, 2026 and a low of $298.32 on July 29, 2026. Each red dot marks a day company insiders sold shares on the open market (4 days in this period). There are no green dots: no insider bought on the open market in this window.

TSLA analyst consensus

Of 61 Wall Street analysts covering TSLA, 30 rate it a buy, 25 a hold and 6 a sell — a consensus of Hold. Ratings are little changed over three months.

TSLA earnings track record

Tesla, Inc. beat the analyst estimate in 2 of the last 4 quarters.

The table below shows TSLA earnings track record. Dec. 31, 2025 has the highest surprise (+10.1%) and June 30, 2026 the lowest (-36.4%).

Next TSLA earnings

Expected on Oct. 21, 2026 (3 days from now).

How much TSLA has swung before

Over the last three years TSLA had 3 drops of 20% or more from a high; the deepest was down 53.8%.

Also worth knowing about TSLA

Live TSLA data, updated every 30 minutes: TSLA insider trades, ownership and filings →

What would change the picture for TSLA

These are the specific events and levels to watch. None of them is a prediction.

• The Oct. 21, 2026 earnings report (3 days away). Tesla, Inc. beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters (average surprise -7.0%); a miss would break that pattern.
• An open-market purchase by an insider at Tesla, Inc.. There has been none in 90 days; Form 4 filings would show one within two business days of the trade.
• Analyst ratings: the average score moved from 3.48 to 3.54 over three months (1 = strong buy, 5 = strong sell). A run of downgrades after earnings usually shows up here first.
• Price levels: a close above $489.88 would be a new 52-week high (+38.1% from here); a close below $298.32 would be a new 52-week low (-15.9%).
• Growth: revenue rose 11.8% year over year in the quarter ending Jun 2026 (trend: accelerating). At a P/E of 328.4, a slowdown would matter more than at a lower multiple.
• New shares: dilution risk is moderate now. A new shelf registration (S-3) or a prospectus supplement (424B) for an offering would raise it.

How TSLA compares with its peers

Over the past month TSLA ranks 1 of 2 in this group (-3.1%); the best was TSLA (-3.1%) and the weakest SPCX (-5.7%).

TSLA history: what happened after similar moves

Since 2023, TSLA fell 10% or more in a month 16 times (separate episodes, not counting the current one). Three months later it was higher in 9 of 15 cases; the median change was +2.6%.

Past moves don't predict the next one; they show how volatile the stock has been.

Questions people also ask

What is TSLA's 52-week high and low?

Over the past year TSLA closed as high as $489.88 and as low as $298.32. At $354.72 (Oct. 16, 2026) it is down 27.6% from the high and 18.9% above the low.

When does Tesla, Inc. report earnings next?

The next report is expected on Oct. 21, 2026, 3 days from now. Tesla, Inc. beat the average estimate in 2 of its last 4 reports.

Is Tesla, Inc. profitable?

Yes. Tesla, Inc. had $103.6 billion of revenue over the last 12 months with a net margin of 3.7% and a P/E of 328.4.

Is Tesla, Inc. issuing new shares?

Dilution risk reads moderate (30/100); the share count rose 22.4% in a year.

Are TSLA insiders buying or selling?

Insiders sold $938,409 of TSLA on the open market in 90 days and bought none. Sales are often routine (taxes, diversification, pre-planned plans); purchases with their own money are the stronger signal.

Who is the largest shareholder of TSLA?

Among investment managers that file Form 13F, BlackRock Inc. reported the largest TSLA position ($90.1 billion). 4286 institutions reported holding TSLA for Q2 2026.

Dates to watch for TSLA

Insider trades can come any day: they must be filed on Form 4 within two business days.

Key terms on this page

P/E ratio

Price divided by the last 12 months of earnings per share. A P/E of 20 means investors pay $20 for each $1 of yearly profit. It is only defined when the company is profitable.

Form 4

The SEC form a company's officers, directors and 10% owners must file within two business days of buying or selling its stock.

Open-market trade

A purchase or sale on the exchange at the market price, paid with the insider's own money (code P or S on Form 4), as opposed to option exercises, grants or gifts.

Form 13F

A quarterly SEC report listing the U.S. stock holdings of every investment manager with more than $100 million. It is due 45 days after each quarter ends, so it shows positions with a delay.

Dilution

When a company issues new shares, each existing share owns a smaller piece of the company. Common sources: stock offerings, convertible debt and large stock-based pay.

Form 8-K

The SEC form for material events between quarterly reports: earnings releases, deals, executive changes, stock offerings and similar news.

52-week high / low

The highest and lowest daily closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days).

Where these numbers come from

Every number on this page is computed from the data when the page is refreshed (usually daily); nothing is typed in by hand. This is information, not investment advice.

• Price: daily closing prices through Oct. 16, 2026; changes use 5, 21 and 63 trading days; the 52-week range uses the last 252 closes.
• Insider trades: SEC Form 4 filings for the last 90 days, counting only open-market purchases (code P) and sales (code S); option exercises, grants, gifts and filings with data errors are left out.
• Analyst ratings: counts of current ratings from 61 analysts, compared with three months ago.
• Earnings dates and estimates: a market-data calendar; reported vs expected EPS for the last 4 quarters.
• Valuation and growth: revenue, earnings, margins and share counts from the company's SEC filings (XBRL data, latest quarter Jun 2026); P/E and price/sales use the latest close.
• Fund ownership: SEC Form 13F filings for Q2 2026.
• Dilution: share-count changes and offering-related SEC filings (shelf registrations, prospectus supplements, convertible notes) over two years, scored 0-100.
• History: 21-trading-day moves over about three years of daily closes, counted once per episode.