Is the AI bubble bursting? How Nvidia and the biggest AI stocks held up in the October 2026 selloff

Of 10 the largest AI stocks, 7 have fallen 10% or more from their 3-month high.

Holding up best (smallest drop from the 3-month high): MSFT -2.6%, META -8.8%, GOOGL -9.8%. Hit hardest: AVGO -23.0%, ORCL -20.8%.

Insiders bought shares on the open market in the last 90 days at: TSM, ORCL.

Over the past week NVDA moved -6.6%, and -2.4% over the past month, to $214.13 (close of 2026-10-16). From its 3-month high it is -10.5%; it is still +29.9% above its 52-week low.

SEC Form 4 filings for the last 90 days show that no insider bought shares on the open market; 3 sold $967.6M. Routine sales are common (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans) and say less than purchases.

Dilution risk reads low (10/100): the share count changed -0.8% in a year.

Over the past week AMD moved -13.0%, and -3.0% over the past month, to $528.75 (close of 2026-10-16). From its 3-month high it is -18.6%; it is still +176.9% above its 52-week low.

SEC Form 4 filings for the last 90 days show that no insider bought shares on the open market; 6 sold $105.5M. Routine sales are common (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans) and say less than purchases.

Dilution risk reads moderate (35/100): the share count changed +0.6% in a year, with 2 offering-related filings in 12 months.

Recent filings worth a look: 8-K on 2026-09-28 (Acquisition paid with new shares).

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) closed at $328.75 on 2026-10-16, -9.1% over five trading days and -5.2% over a month. It sits 31.5% below its 52-week high of $479.91.

SEC Form 4 filings for the last 90 days show that no insider bought shares on the open market; 1 sold $250.0M. Routine sales are common (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans) and say less than purchases.

Dilution risk reads low (0/100): the share count changed +1.1% in a year.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) closed at $412.61 on 2026-10-16, -9.0% over five trading days and -4.1% over a month. It sits 15.1% below its 52-week high of $485.8.

In the last 90 days of SEC Form 4 filings, 30 insiders bought $1.5M on the open market, while nobody sold on the open market.

Dilution risk reads low (0/100): the share count changed -0.0% in a year.

Microsoft Corp (MSFT) closed at $529.05 on 2026-10-16, -1.1% over five trading days and +6.3% over a month. It sits 2.6% below its 52-week high of $543.45.

SEC Form 4 filings for the last 90 days show that no insider bought shares on the open market; 4 sold $75.4M. Routine sales are common (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans) and say less than purchases.

Dilution risk reads low (10/100): the share count changed -0.1% in a year.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) closed at $340.59 on 2026-10-16, -3.1% over five trading days and -1.9% over a month. It sits 15.3% below its 52-week high of $402.11.

In the last 90 days of SEC Form 4 filings, no insider bought shares on the open market, while 2 sold $233K. Routine sales are common (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans) and say less than purchases.

Dilution risk reads moderate (45/100): the share count changed +0.9% in a year, with 3 offering-related filings in 12 months.

Over the past week META moved -1.3%, and +4.0% over the past month, to $709.33 (close of 2026-10-16). From its 3-month high it is -8.8%; it is still +35.1% above its 52-week low.

In the last 90 days of SEC Form 4 filings, no insider bought shares on the open market, while 10 sold $102.7M. Routine sales are common (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans) and say less than purchases.

Dilution risk reads low (10/100): the share count changed -0.2% in a year.

Over the past week AMZN moved -4.7%, and -0.5% over the past month, to $250.0 (close of 2026-10-16). From its 3-month high it is -12.0%; it is still +25.8% above its 52-week low.

SEC Form 4 filings for the last 90 days show that no insider bought shares on the open market; 7 sold $365.0M. Routine sales are common (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans) and say less than purchases.

Dilution risk reads moderate (35/100): the share count changed +1.1% in a year, with 1 offering-related filing in 12 months.

Recent filings worth a look: 8-K on 2026-09-14 (Debt financing (not convertible)).

Over the past week ORCL moved -9.3%, and -14.5% over the past month, to $128.23 (close of 2026-10-16). From its 3-month high it is -20.8%; it is still +11.9% above its 52-week low.

In the last 90 days of SEC Form 4 filings, 1 insider bought $3.5M on the open market, while 2 sold $5.3M.

Dilution risk reads high (70/100): the share count changed +6.4% in a year, with 4 offering-related filings in 12 months.

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) closed at $186.03 on 2026-10-16, -11.0% over five trading days and +5.6% over a month. It sits 11.0% below its 52-week high of $209.05.

In the last 90 days of SEC Form 4 filings, no insider bought shares on the open market, while 7 sold $103.5M. Routine sales are common (taxes, diversification, pre-planned 10b5-1 plans) and say less than purchases.

Dilution risk reads low (0/100): the share count changed +0.2% in a year.

What would change the picture for the the largest AI stocks

• Earnings: META reports on 2026-10-21 (4 days).
• Earnings: GOOGL reports on 2026-10-28 (11 days).
• Earnings: MSFT reports on 2026-10-28 (11 days).
• Earnings: AMZN reports on 2026-10-29 (12 days).
• Insider buying after the drop: open-market purchases already filed at TSM, ORCL; more buyers, or more money, would strengthen that.
• The Fed decision on 2026-10-28: rate expectations move high-valuation stocks the most.

Specific events and data to watch, not a prediction.

Valuation and growth side by side

From each company's latest SEC filings and the latest close. A dash means the number isn't meaningful (for example no P/E without profits).

History: past 20% drops and recoveries

How often each stock fell 20% or more from a high in about three years of daily closes, and how long full recoveries took. Past swings don't predict the next one.

Questions people also ask

Is the AI bubble bursting?

Nobody can promise how a stock will move, and CapitalSnitch does not tell anyone what to buy or sell. What we can show is the public record behind the question: price action, what company insiders did with their own money, whether the company is issuing new shares, and what it told the SEC in recent filings (NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM, MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, ORCL, PLTR). Use it as one input, and consider a licensed financial professional for personal advice.

Which AI stocks are the most resilient after the drop?

Of 10 the largest AI stocks, 7 have fallen 10% or more from their 3-month high. Holding up best (smallest drop from the 3-month high): MSFT -2.6%, META -8.8%, GOOGL -9.8%. Hit hardest: AVGO -23.0%, ORCL -20.8%.

Which of the the largest AI stocks fell the most?

AVGO is -23.0% from its 3-month high, the biggest drop in this group; MSFT held up best (-2.6%).

Which of the the largest AI stocks are up this month?

MSFT (+6.3%), PLTR (+5.6%), META (+4.0%) over the past month.

Are insiders buying any of the the largest AI stocks?

Yes: TSM ($1.5M by 30 insiders); ORCL ($3.5M by 1 insider) in open-market purchases over 90 days.

Which of these companies are issuing new shares?

Dilution risk is elevated at AMD (moderate, 35/100), GOOGL (moderate, 45/100), AMZN (moderate, 35/100), ORCL (high, 70/100).

When do the the largest AI stocks report earnings?

Next up: META on 2026-10-21; GOOGL on 2026-10-28; MSFT on 2026-10-28; AMZN on 2026-10-29; PLTR on 2026-11-02.

Dates to watch

Key terms on this page

P/E ratio

Price divided by the last 12 months of earnings per share. A P/E of 20 means investors pay $20 for each $1 of yearly profit. It is only defined when the company is profitable.

Price-to-sales

Market value divided by the last 12 months of revenue. Useful for companies with little or no profit, but it ignores margins.

Form 4

The SEC form a company's officers, directors and 10% owners must file within two business days of buying or selling its stock.

Open-market trade

A purchase or sale on the exchange at the market price, paid with the insider's own money (code P or S on Form 4), as opposed to option exercises, grants or gifts.

Form 13F

A quarterly SEC report listing the U.S. stock holdings of every investment manager with more than $100 million. It is due 45 days after each quarter ends, so it shows positions with a delay.

Dilution

When a company issues new shares, each existing share owns a smaller piece of the company. Common sources: stock offerings, convertible debt and large stock-based pay.

52-week high / low

The highest and lowest daily closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days).

Where these numbers come from

• Prices: daily closes; the table uses 5-day, 1-month and 3-month changes and the distance from the 3-month high.
• Insider trades: SEC Form 4, open-market purchases (P) and sales (S) only, last 90 days.
• Dilution: share-count changes and offering-related SEC filings over two years, scored 0-100.
• Valuation: revenue, earnings and margins from SEC XBRL data; P/E and price/sales use the latest close.
• Earnings dates: a market-data calendar.

Every number on this page is computed from the data when the page is refreshed (usually daily); nothing is typed in by hand. This is information, not investment advice.