SHOP stock forecast after today's 9.6% plunge

Price targets are educated guesses, but their inputs are public. CapitalSnitch does not publish price targets or predictions.

Below are the four factors that matter most for SHOP: analyst opinions, the upcoming earnings report, recent performance versus estimates, and the stock’s historical volatility.

The chart below shows SHOP's daily closing price from May 7, 2026 through Nov. 2, 2026. During that period the price rose 39.8%, moving from $111.74 to $156.22. The high was $179.22 on Oct. 12, 2026 and the low $95.40 on May 13, 2026.

SHOP earnings track record

Shop beat the analyst estimate in 3 of the last 4 quarters.

The table below shows SHOP earnings track record. March 31, 2026 has the highest surprise (+6.8%) and Dec. 31, 2025 the lowest (-7.1%). Sept. 30, 2026 ranks 2 of 4.

Next SHOP earnings

Expected on Nov. 3, 2026 (0 days from now).

How much SHOP has swung before

Over the last three years SHOP had 4 drops of 20% or more from a high; the deepest was down 46.7%.

Also worth knowing about SHOP

Live SHOP data, updated every 30 minutes: SHOP insider trades, ownership and filings →

In Shop's own words

“This was a monster quarter: more than 30% growth in GMV AND revenue AND gross profit AND free cash flow”

— Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify · SEC filing

From the company's earnings release filed with the SEC on 2026-08-05 (Form 8-K).

What would change the picture for SHOP

These are the specific events and levels to watch. None of them is a prediction.

• The Nov. 3, 2026 earnings report (0 days away). Shop beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters (average surprise +1.7%); a miss would break that pattern.
• Insider buying: none on the open market in 90 days. A purchase by an executive or director would be the first in at least three months, and it would show up on SEC Form 4 within two business days.
• Price levels: a close above $179.22 would be a new 52-week high, 14.7% above the latest close of $156.22; a close below $95.4 would be a new 52-week low, 38.9% below it.
• Growth: revenue rose 32.5% year over year in the quarter ending Jun 2026 (trend: steady). At a P/E of 105.6, a slowdown would matter more than at a lower multiple.
• New shares: dilution risk is low now. A new shelf registration (S-3) or a prospectus supplement (424B) for an offering would raise it.

How SHOP compares with its peers

Over the past month SHOP ranks 3 of 4 in this group (+3.2%); the best was ETSY (+27.0%) and the weakest AMZN (-2.3%).

SHOP's P/E of 105.6 is above the peers' median of 19.9, so investors pay more for each dollar of its profit, usually for faster expected growth.

SHOP history: what happened after similar moves

Since 2023, SHOP fell 10% or more in a month 14 times (separate episodes, not counting the current one). Three months later it was higher in 6 of 13 cases; the median change was -0.0%.

Past moves don't predict the next one; they show how volatile the stock has been.

Questions people also ask

What is SHOP's 52-week high and low?

Over the past year SHOP closed as high as $179.22 and as low as $95.4. At $156.22 (Nov. 2, 2026) it is down 12.8% from the high and 63.8% above the low. More →

When does Shop report earnings next?

The next report is expected on Nov. 3, 2026, 0 days from now. Shop beat the average estimate in 3 of its last 4 reports.

Are SHOP insiders buying or selling?

No Shop insider bought or sold SHOP on the open market in the last 90 days, according to SEC Form 4 filings.

Who is the largest shareholder of SHOP?

Among investment managers that file Form 13F, Capital International Investors reported the largest SHOP position ($6.3 billion). 1707 institutions reported holding SHOP for Q2 2026.

Does SHOP pay a dividend?

Shop reported no dividend payments over the last 12 months in its SEC filings.

Is Shop profitable?

Yes. Shop had $13.3 billion of revenue over the last 12 months with a net margin of 14.5% and a P/E of 105.6.

Dates to watch for SHOP

Insider trades can come any day: they must be filed on Form 4 within two business days.

Key terms on this page

P/E ratio

Price divided by the last 12 months of earnings per share. A P/E of 20 means investors pay $20 for each $1 of yearly profit. It is only defined when the company is profitable.

Form 4

The SEC form a company's officers, directors and 10% owners must file within two business days of buying or selling its stock.

Open-market trade

A purchase or sale on the exchange at the market price, paid with the insider's own money (code P or S on Form 4), as opposed to option exercises, grants or gifts.

Form 13F

A quarterly SEC report listing the U.S. stock holdings of every investment manager with more than $100 million. It is due 45 days after each quarter ends, so it shows positions with a delay.

Dilution

When a company issues new shares, each existing share owns a smaller piece of the company. Common sources: stock offerings, convertible debt and large stock-based pay.

Form 8-K

The SEC form for material events between quarterly reports: earnings releases, deals, executive changes, stock offerings and similar news.

52-week high / low

The highest and lowest daily closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days).

Where these numbers come from

Every number on this page is computed from the data when the page is refreshed (usually daily); nothing is typed in by hand. This is information, not investment advice.

• Price: daily closing prices through Nov. 2, 2026; changes use 5, 21 and 63 trading days; the 52-week range uses the last 252 closes.
• Insider trades: SEC Form 4 filings for the last 90 days, counting only open-market purchases (code P) and sales (code S); option exercises, grants, gifts and filings with data errors are left out.
• Earnings dates and estimates: a market-data calendar; reported vs expected EPS for the last 4 quarters.
• Valuation and growth: revenue, earnings, margins and share counts from the company's SEC filings (XBRL data, latest quarter Jun 2026); P/E and price/sales use the latest close.
• Fund ownership: SEC Form 13F filings for Q2 2026.
• Dilution: share-count changes and offering-related SEC filings (shelf registrations, prospectus supplements, convertible notes) over two years, scored 0-100.
• History: 21-trading-day moves over about three years of daily closes, counted once per episode.