MSFT stock forecast and price prediction: what the data shows

Price targets are educated guesses, but the inputs behind them are public. CapitalSnitch doesn't publish price targets or predictions.

Below are the four that matter most for MSFT: what analysts think, the next earnings report, how Microsoft Corp has done against estimates and how much the stock has swung in the past.

The chart below tracks MSFT's daily closing price from April 22, 2026 to Oct. 16, 2026. Over that stretch it is up 22.7%, from $431.17 to $529.05, with a high of $543.45 on Oct. 13, 2026 and a low of $352.16 on June 25, 2026. Each red dot marks a day company insiders sold shares on the open market (9 days in this period). There are no green dots: no insider bought on the open market in this window.

MSFT analyst consensus

Of 69 Wall Street analysts covering MSFT, 64 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell — a consensus of Buy. Ratings are little changed over three months.

MSFT earnings track record

Microsoft Corp beat the analyst estimate in all 4 of the last 4 quarters.

The table below shows MSFT earnings track record. Sept. 30, 2025 has the highest surprise (+10.5%) and Dec. 31, 2025 the lowest (+2.6%). June 30, 2026 ranks 2 of 4.

Next MSFT earnings

Expected on Oct. 28, 2026 (10 days from now).

How much MSFT has swung before

Over the last three years MSFT had 2 drops of 20% or more from a high; the deepest was down 34.5%.

Also worth knowing about MSFT

Live MSFT data, updated every 30 minutes: MSFT insider trades, ownership and filings →

In Microsoft Corp's own words

“We are advancing the frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve, ensuring every customer can turn tokens into business results”

— Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft · SEC filing

From the company's earnings release filed with the SEC on 2026-07-29 (Form 8-K).

What would change the picture for MSFT

These are the specific events and levels to watch. None of them is a prediction.

• The Oct. 28, 2026 earnings report (10 days away). Microsoft Corp beat estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters (average surprise +6.4%); a miss would break that pattern.
• Insider buying: none on the open market in 90 days. A purchase by an executive or director would be the first in at least three months, and it would show up on SEC Form 4 within two business days.
• Analyst ratings: the average score moved from 4.27 to 4.26 over three months (on a scale where 5 is strong buy and 1 is strong sell). A run of downgrades after earnings usually shows up here first.
• Price levels: a close above $543.45 would be a new 52-week high, 2.7% above the latest close of $529.05; a close below $352.16 would be a new 52-week low, 33.4% below it.
• Growth: revenue rose 17.8% year over year in the quarter ending Jun 2026 (trend: steady). At a P/E of 29.5, a slowdown would matter more than at a lower multiple.
• New shares: dilution risk is low now. A new shelf registration (S-3) or a prospectus supplement (424B) for an offering would raise it.

How MSFT compares with its peers

Over the past month MSFT ranks 1 of 5 in this group (+6.3%); the best was MSFT (+6.3%) and the weakest GOOGL (-1.9%).

MSFT's P/E of 29.5 is above the peers' median of 23.4, so investors pay more for each dollar of its profit, usually for faster expected growth.

MSFT history: what happened after similar moves

Since 2023, MSFT rose 6.3% or more in a month 16 times (separate episodes, not counting the current one). Three months later it was higher in 10 of 14 cases; the median change was +5.4%.

Past moves don't predict the next one; they show how volatile the stock has been.

Questions people also ask

What is MSFT's 52-week high and low?

Over the past year MSFT closed as high as $543.45 and as low as $352.16. At $529.05 (Oct. 16, 2026) it is down 2.6% from the high and 50.2% above the low.

When does Microsoft Corp report earnings next?

The next report is expected on Oct. 28, 2026, 10 days from now. Microsoft Corp beat the average estimate in all 4 of the last 4 reports. More →

Is Microsoft Corp profitable?

Yes. Microsoft Corp had $331.8 billion of revenue over the last 12 months with a net margin of 40.3% and a P/E of 29.5. More →

Are MSFT insiders buying or selling?

Insiders sold $75.4 million of MSFT on the open market in 90 days and bought none. Sales are often routine (taxes, diversification, pre-planned plans); purchases with their own money are the stronger signal.

Who is the largest shareholder of MSFT?

Among investment managers that file Form 13F, BlackRock Inc. reported the largest MSFT position ($226.6 billion). 6213 institutions reported holding MSFT for Q2 2026. More →

Is Microsoft Corp issuing new shares?

Dilution risk reads low (10/100); the share count fell 0.1% in a year.

Dates to watch for MSFT

Insider trades can come any day: they must be filed on Form 4 within two business days.

Key terms on this page

P/E ratio

Price divided by the last 12 months of earnings per share. A P/E of 20 means investors pay $20 for each $1 of yearly profit. It is only defined when the company is profitable.

Form 4

The SEC form a company's officers, directors and 10% owners must file within two business days of buying or selling its stock.

Open-market trade

A purchase or sale on the exchange at the market price, paid with the insider's own money (code P or S on Form 4), as opposed to option exercises, grants or gifts.

Form 13F

A quarterly SEC report listing the U.S. stock holdings of every investment manager with more than $100 million. It is due 45 days after each quarter ends, so it shows positions with a delay.

Dilution

When a company issues new shares, each existing share owns a smaller piece of the company. Common sources: stock offerings, convertible debt and large stock-based pay.

Form 8-K

The SEC form for material events between quarterly reports: earnings releases, deals, executive changes, stock offerings and similar news.

52-week high / low

The highest and lowest daily closing price over the past year (about 252 trading days).

Where these numbers come from

Every number on this page is computed from the data when the page is refreshed (usually daily); nothing is typed in by hand. This is information, not investment advice.

• Price: daily closing prices through Oct. 16, 2026; changes use 5, 21 and 63 trading days; the 52-week range uses the last 252 closes.
• Insider trades: SEC Form 4 filings for the last 90 days, counting only open-market purchases (code P) and sales (code S); option exercises, grants, gifts and filings with data errors are left out.
• Analyst ratings: counts of current ratings from 69 analysts, compared with three months ago.
• Earnings dates and estimates: a market-data calendar; reported vs expected EPS for the last 4 quarters.
• Valuation and growth: revenue, earnings, margins and share counts from the company's SEC filings (XBRL data, latest quarter Jun 2026); P/E and price/sales use the latest close.
• Fund ownership: SEC Form 13F filings for Q2 2026.
• Dilution: share-count changes and offering-related SEC filings (shelf registrations, prospectus supplements, convertible notes) over two years, scored 0-100.
• History: 21-trading-day moves over about three years of daily closes, counted once per episode.